BC election predictions, and why I decided that it's not skeezy being Green

In 2001 we elected dicks after a Clark, today we're electing Dix after a Clark.

The NDP are going to win, and they're going to win by a lot. The Greens will not win a seat, neither will the Conservatives, and neither will Christi Clark.

Which means that if you live in a riding previously held by a New Democrat, your riding's outcome is predetermined. I live in the riding of Esquimalt-Royal Roads, which the NDP won last time by nearly 53%. In a 3-way race.

I don't see the point in voting for any of the big parties if the outcome is assured, so I voted Green. I don't expect Susan Low to come close to winning this seat; In 2009 Jane Sterk only won 16.8%, and she had the benefit of being party leader running against a progressive party widely expected to lose. And now that progressives have a real shot at power, some of them will ditch the Greens to vote NDP. A lot of progressives treat the Green Party as a novel place to park their votes until they can get exited about the New Democrats again, which I think does them disservice.

Under Jane Sterk, the Green Party has become a credible force. She is a successful businesswoman, and she's managed to convince industry leaders and Nobel Prize winners to run under her banner. Her party has been consistently principled. While some environmentalists lauded Adrian Dix as a man of principle for his policy switch on the pipeline, Jane Sterk rightly pointed out that the Green Party had been against it all along. 

While I wouldn't want a Green Party government, I think a Green upset in a riding or two would be a very good thing for BC.